En trabajo de EDICIÓN


Intencionalidad del embarazo y cuidados prenatales en Uruguay
Autor/es: Brunet, Nicolás; Cabella, Wanda; Marroig, Alejandra; Nathan, Mathías; Pardo, Ignacio; Zoppolo, Guillermo
Fecha: 12/2020
Publicación: Revista Médica del Uruguay. Volumen 36 Issue 4 Pages 52-82 ISSN 1688-0390

URL:www.scielo.edu.uy/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&pid=S1688-03902020000400052&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=es

Doi:10.29193/rmu.36.4.4

Resumen: Desde hace algunos años el número de embarazos no intencionales en Uruguay ronda el 40%; esta cifra es alta en comparación con otros países que también tienen baja fecundidad y da cuenta de las dificultades de acceso y uso eficaz de métodos anticonceptivos modernos. Además, varios estudios evidencian que los embarazos no intencionales están vinculados con cuidados prenatales insuficientes y peores desempeños de los recién nacidos respecto a los nacimientos resultantes de embarazos intencionales.Objetivo: analizar la asociación entre intencionalidad de los embarazos y los cuidados prenatales en Uruguay a partir del estudio de su incidencia sobre la captación temprana del embarazo y las prácticas no saludables durante la gestación (fumar y tomar alcohol).Método: se consideran los nacimientos no intencionales y a destiempo (no buscados en ese momento) como dos grupos de tratamiento y se comparan con el grupo de nacimientos intencionales. Se examina el efecto neto de la intencionalidad del embarazo sobre las prácticas de salud durante la gestación utilizando técnicas de Propensity Score Matching (PSM). Se utilizan datos provenientes de la Encuesta de Nutrición, Desarrollo Infantil y Salud (ENDIS), un estudio de panel que recoge información desde 2013 de madres con hijos de entre 0 y 3 años en hogares ubicados en localidades urbanas de Uruguay (mayores a 5.000 habitantes).Resultados: antes de realizar el emparejamiento por PSM, las diferencias entre grupos de intención de embarazos fueron significativas para captación temprana y haber fumado, mientras que haber bebido alcohol no se asoció a diferencias significativas entre grupos de intención de los embarazos.Palabras clave: Embarazo no deseado; Atención prenatal; Emparejamiento por puntaje de propensión.


On the empirical relationship between tourism and economic growth
Autor/es: Brida, Juan Gabriel; Matesanz Gómez, David; Segarra, Verónica
Fecha: 12/2020
Publicación: Tourism Management. Volumen 81 ISSN 0261-5177

URL: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517720300571

Doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104131

Resumen: This paper studies the dynamics of economic growth and tourism evolution for 80 countries during the period 1995–2016. The variables representing economic and tourism growth are growth rates of per capita GDP and international tourist arrivals per inhabitant respectively. Using the concept of economic regime, the paper introduces a notion of distance between the dynamical paths of different countries. Then, a Minimal Spanning Tree and a Hierarchical Tree are constructed to detect groups of countries sharing similar performance. The two main clusters we find can be interpreted as two groups of countries with high and low performance in the tourism sector and are coherent with the business cycle. The evolution of such clusters shows three main stylized facts: certain countries move across clusters; the low performance cluster tends to span, while the high performance one tends to be (more) compact; the distance between the two groups increases in time.


Salud Bucal y Enfermedades no transmisibles en pacientes de un centro de enseñanza universitaria, Montevideo-Uruguay. Parte 1
Autor/es: Lorenzo-Erro, Susana Margarita; Skapino, Estela; Musto, Marina; Olmos, Patricia; Fabruccini, Anunzziatta; Massa, Fernando; Moliterno, Paula; Álvarez-Vaz, Ramón; Vilas; Piovesan, Sylvia; Cossetti, Laura; Pisón, Florencia; Pesce, Romina; Sanguinetti, Rossina; Gardiol, María
Fecha: 12/2020
Publicación: Odontoestomatología. Volumen 22 Issue 36 ISSN 1688-9339

URL: www.scielo.edu.uy/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&pid=S1688-93392020000300055&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=es

Doi:10.22592/ode2020n36a7

Resumen: Las enfermedades no transmisibles (ENT) comparten factores de riesgo conductuales y metabólicos con las enfermedades bucales y ambas representan un problema de salud pública. Objetivo: Determinar la prevalencia ENT y sus factores de riesgo conductuales y metabólicos en personas que concurrieron a la Facultad de Odontología de la Universidad de la República. Métodos: Estudio transversal en el que se aplicó un cuestionario sobre características sociodemográficas y hábitos vinculados a factores de riesgo comportamentales. Se realizaron mediciones antropométricas, de presión arterial y glicemia capilar. Resultados: Fueron encuestados 602 individuos. Conclusiones: En función de las prevalencias elevadas de varios factores de riesgo, se recomienda la instalación de un programa preventivo-educativo en las salas de espera de la Facultad.


Aplicación De Técnicas De Clustering Para La Elaboración De Perfiles Epidemiológicos En Estudios Sanitarios
Autor/es: Massa, Fernando; Álvarez-Vaz, Ramón
Fecha: 12/2020
Publicación: SabereEs. Volumen 12 Número 2 ISSN   1852-4222

URL: https://saberes.unr.edu.ar/index.php/revista/article/view/234

Doi:

Resumen:En el contexto de los estudios epidemiológicos, donde se indaga por las enfermedades no transmisibles (ENT), es práctica habitual utilizar variables categóricas para reflejar tanto la presencia de determinadas enfermedades como de comorbilidades o factores de riesgo (FR). En particular, dentro del ámbito de las patologías orales (PO), las ENT también suelen ser consideradas como FR. En este sentido, existe la posibilidad de considerar el estado de salud global de los individuos, atendiendo simultáneamente la presencia de ENT, PO y FR. Entre los años 2015 y 2016 se llevó a cabo un estudio concerniente a las personas que demandaron asistencia en la Facultad de Odontología de la Universidad de la República, Uruguay. Dicho estudio tenía como objetivo investigar el vínculo entre los FR de las ENT más prevalentes y la salud bucal. Se propone la obtención de perfiles epidemiológicos bien diferenciados a partir de la determinación de tipologías de individuos, en base a atributos categóricos, referentes a ENT, las PO más frecuentes y los FR comunes a ambas. Se detectaron dos tipologías definidas, principalmente por las prevalencias de ENT y PO. Una de ellas se caracterizó por la coexistencia de PO, ENT y FR mientras que en la otra se observaron participantes con menores prevalencias de ENT. Adicionalmente se constató que el grupo de mayor carga de enfermedad estuvo compuesto por principalmente por mujeres y personas de edades más avanzadas, lo cual podría explicar la mayor prevalencia de ENT.


Cognitive Dispersion Is Not Associated with Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers of Alzheimer's Disease: Results from the European Prevention of Alzheimer's Dementia (EPAD) v500.0 Cohort
Autor/es: Watermeyer, Tam; Ritchie, Craig W.; Marroig, Alejandra; Ritchie, Karen; Blennow, Kaj; EPAD Consortium
Fecha: 10/2020
Publicación: Journal of Alzheimer's disease: JAD. Volumen 78 Issue 1 Pages 185-194 ISSN 1875-8908

URL:content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-alzheimers-disease/jad200514

Doi:10.3233/JAD-200514

Resumen:

BACKGROUND: Cognitive dispersion, variation in performance across cognitive domains, is posited as a non-invasive and cost-effective marker of early neurodegeneration. Little work has explored associations between cognitive dispersion and Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers in healthy older adults. Even less is known about the influence or interaction of biomarkers reflecting brain pathophysiology or other risk factors on cognitive dispersion scores.

OBJECTIVE: The main aim of this study was to examine whether higher cognitive dispersion was associated with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of amyloid-β (Aβ42), total tau (t-tau), phosphorylated tau (p-tau), and amyloid positivity in a cohort of older adults at various severities of AD. A secondary aim was to explore which AD risk factors were associated with cognitive dispersion scores.

METHODS: Linear and logistic regression analyses explored the associations between dispersion and CSF levels of Aβ42, t-tau, and p-tau and amyloid positivity (Aβ42 < 1000 pg/ml). Relationships between sociodemographics, APOEɛ4 status, family history of dementia, and levels of depression and dispersion were also assessed.
RESULTS: Dispersion did not emerge as associated with any of the analytes nor amyloid positivity. Older (β= -0.007, SE = 0.002, p = 0.001) and less educated (β= -0.009, SE = 0.003, p = 0.009) individuals showed greater dispersion.

CONCLUSION: Dispersion was not associated with AD pathology, but was associated with age and years of education, highlighting individual differences in cognitive aging. The use of this metric as a screening tool for existing AD pathology is not supported by our analyses. Follow-up work will determine if dispersion scores can predict changes in biomarker levels and/or positivity status longitudinally.


¿Con qué factores se asocia el rendimiento académico de escolares de cuarto de primaria?
Autor/es: Vernazza, Elena; Urruticoechea, Alar;  Del Callejo Canal, Diana; Canal Martínez, Margarita; Álvarez-Vaz, Ramón
Fecha: 09/2020
Publicación: International Journal of Developmental and Educational Psychology. Volumen 1 Número 1 ISSN 0214-9877

Doi:https://doi.org/10.17060/ijodaep.2020.n1.v1.1774

Resumen: En este trabajo se analizan factores que se asocian con el rendimiento académico de escolares de cuarto de Educación Primaria, considerando variables propias del escolar, de su entorno escolar y de su contexto familiar. Los participantes analizados corresponden a 25245 escolares de cuarto nivel de Educación Primaria, evaluados por la “Evaluación General de Diagnóstico” en España en el año 2009. La estrategia estadística de análisis fue Análisis de Correspondencias Múltiples. Los principales resultados obtenidos permiten concluir que existe una asociación entreelalto rendimiento yla no repetición escolar,el gusto (bastante) por asistir a la escuela, lalengua en la que los escolares realizaron la prueba (evaluación en castellano) y titularidad de la escuela (privada). El alto rendimiento académico se asocia además con un alto nivel educativo de padres y madres. En cuanto a factores con los que se asocia un rendimiento académico considerado medio, se tiene el gusto por asistir a la escuela (mucho gusto), la lengua en la que realizaron las evaluaciones (valenciano y catalán), la titularidad de la escuela (públicas) y el nivel educativo del núcleo familiar (ESO/EGB). Por último, los factores asociados a valores bajos de rendimiento académico se identifican con poco gusto por asistir a la escuela (nada), repetición de al menos un año de primaria, realización de las pruebas en vasco y hogares monoparentales. No se detectan asociaciones entre el rendimiento académico y el sexo del escolar.


Estudio comparativo del rendimiento entre niños repetidores y no repetidores
Autor/es: Urruticoechea, Alar; Vernazza, Elena;  Del Callejo Canal, Diana; Canal Martínez, Margarita; Álvarez-Vaz, Ramón
Fecha: 09/2020
Publicación: International Journal of Developmental and Educational Psychology. Volumen 1 Número 1 ISSN 0214-9877
Resumen:Introducción: Hoy en día el Sistema Educativo español propone la repetición como herramienta nive-ladora entre el rendimiento real del escolar y el nivel académico al que concurre. Si bien se ha demostrado que las consecuencias negativas de la repetición a corto, medio y largo plazo son mayores que los beneficios, la posibilidad de utilizar este mecanismo ha convertido a España en el país de la OCDE con mayor tasa de repetidores. Tomando este dato como punto de partida surge la duda de si realmente la repetición está cumpliendo con el objetivo para el cual fue creada. Objetivo de investigación: Comparar los niveles de rendimiento entre los estudiantes repetidores y los no repetidores. Método: Para lograr este objetivo se analizaron 25245 respuestas de alumnos de cuarto de Educación Primaria a la prueba “Evaluación General de Diagnóstico” de 2009. Las estrategias metodológicas utilizadas fueron, por un lado, el análisis de diferencia de medias, en particular, mediante la prueba Welch y por otro, la metodología HJ-Biplot. Resultados: Del total de la muestra el 6.83% son repetidores. Todas las competencias a estudio (Comunicación lingüística,Matemática, Interacción con el mundo físico y Social y ciudadana) se asocian positivamente entre ellas,donde la correlación más fuerte se da entre Mundo físico y Lingüística (.68) y entre Mundo físico y Social-Ciudadana (.68), y la más débil entre Social-Ciudadana y Lingüística (.57). Los alumnos no repetidores obtienen puntuaciones medias más altas en todas las competencias y estas diferencias son significativas obteniendo un p. valor < .001 en la prueba de Welch. Conclusión: La repetición, en la mayoría de los casos,no sirve para mejorar el rendimiento. Discusión: Entendiendo que la repetición genera desigualdad de los niños en la sociedad y que no es una herramienta útil, es necesario realizar otro tipo de intervenciones paramejorar el rendimiento de los alumnos que son propensos susceptibles a repetir.

The Solow-Swan model with endogenous population growth
Autor/es: Cayssials,Gaston; Picasso,Santiago
Fecha: 07/2020
Publicación: Journal of Dynamics & Games, Volumen 7, Pages 197-208
Resumen: This paper presents a reformulation of the classical Solow-Swan growth model where a dynamic of the endogenous population is incorporated. In our model, the population growth rate continually depends on per capita consumption. We find that – as in the classic Solow-Swan model – there is a steady state for the capital-labour ratio, which is always lower than that deduced from the original model with zero population growth rate, but it is not necessarily unique. Under certain conditions, there is an odd amount, and only the smallest and the largest are locally stable. Finally, a study of comparative static of stationary states is performed by varying the total factor productivity, and the results are compared with those of the original model. It is found that the effects of exogenous variables on endogenous variables differ from the original model.

A dynamic extension of the classical model of production prices determination
Autor/es:  Brida,Gabriel; Cayssials,Gaston; Córdoba,Oscar ; Puchet Anyul, Martín
Fecha: 07/2020
Publicación: Journal of Dynamics & Games, Volumen 7, Pages 197-208
Resumen: This paper generalizes the classical model of determination of production prices for two commodities by introducing a dynamics generated by the possibility that the profit rate can be computed using prices of different stages. In this theoretical framework, the prices show a codependency between the two sectors, given by the rate of profit, and inter-industry transactions. In this setup and using discrete time, the general model can be represented by a nonlinear two dimensional dynamical system of difference equations of second order. The study shows that the dynamical system admits a unique solution for any initial condition and that there is a unique nontrivial equilibrium. In addition, it can be shown that locally the dynamical system can be represented in the canonical form x(t+1)= f(x(t)) and that the stability of the equilibrium depends on the parameters of the production process. Future research includes the extension of the model to the case of several commodities and the closed solution of the model.

Licenciatura en Estadística: primer monitoreo del Plan 1998
Autor/es: Combra, Ana; Vernazza, Elena
Fecha: 06/2020
Publicación: InterCambios. Dilemas y transiciones de la Educación Superior. Volumen 7, Número 1, ISSN 2301-0126

URL: www.scielo.edu.uy/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&pid=S2301-01262020000100066&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=es

Doi: 10.2916/inter.7.1.7

Resumen: La Licenciatura en Estadística de la Universidad de la República (Udelar) es una carrera gestionada por Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración (FCEA), Facultad de Ciencias (FCIEN) y Facultad de Ingeniería (FING).

Desde su origen en 1998, la Licenciatura en Estadística es la única carrera de grado en el país que ofrece una oportunidad de estudio curricular en estadística.

Hasta el año 2014, los cursos de la licenciatura estaban organizados en un tronco común de 16 asignaturas obligatorias y otras específicas que definían tres perfiles de egresados: Administración, Economía y Actuarial-Demográfica.

Desde 1998 se han inscrito 2.047 estudiantes, que han elegido uno o más perfiles de egresado: 982 en Administración, 1.549 en Economía y 674 en Actuarial-Demográfica. Sin embargo, a marzo de 2018, solo 76 han egresado.

En este trabajo se estudian las trayectorias curriculares de los estudiantes de la Licenciatura en Estadística (Plan 1998), desde su creación hasta la actualidad, a partir de la creación de perfiles sociodemográficos de los estudiantes y de indicadores que reflejen su rendimiento académico en los cursos que conforman el tronco principal de la licenciatura.

El cálculo de los indicadores se basa en el documento creado por el Grupo Sistema de Información de la Enseñanza de la Universidad de la República. En este trabajo se calculan indicadores de proceso educativo.

Los datos utilizados provienen del Sistema de Gestión de Bedelías y de la Dirección General de Planeamiento de la Universidad de la República y corresponden a inscritos en la Licenciatura en Estadística entre 1998 y 2014.


The Maize Hairy Sheath Frayed1 (Hsf1) Mutation Alters Leaf Patterning through Increased Cytokinin Signaling
Autor/es: Álvarez-Castro, Ignacio;  Cahill, James; Muszynsk, Michael
Fecha: 05/2020
Publicación: Plant Cell. Volumen 32 Número 5 ISSN  1040-4651

URL: http://www.plantcell.org/content/32/5/1501.abstract

Doi: 10.1105/tpc.19.00677

Resumen: Leaf morphogenesis requires growth polarized along three axes—proximal-distal (P-D) axis, medial-lateral axis, and abaxial-adaxial axis. Grass leaves display a prominent P-D polarity consisting of a proximal sheath separated from the distal blade by the auricle and ligule. Although proper specification of the four segments is essential for normal morphology, our knowledge is incomplete regarding the mechanisms that influence P-D specification in monocots such as maize (Zea mays). Here, we report the identification of the gene underlying the semidominant, leaf patterning maize mutant Hairy Sheath Frayed1 (Hsf1). Hsf1 plants produce leaves with outgrowths consisting of proximal segments—sheath, auricle, and ligule—emanating from the distal blade margin. Analysis of three independent Hsf1 alleles revealed gain-of-function missense mutations in the ligand binding domain of the maize cytokinin (CK) receptor Z. mays Histidine Kinase1 (ZmHK1) gene. Biochemical analysis and structural modeling suggest the mutated residues near the CK binding pocket affect CK binding affinity. Treatment of the wild-type seedlings with exogenous CK phenocopied the Hsf1 leaf phenotypes. Results from expression and epistatic analyses indicated the Hsf1 mutant receptor appears to be hypersignaling. Our results demonstrate that hypersignaling of CK in incipient leaf primordia can reprogram developmental patterns in maize.


Clustering and regime dynamics for economic growth and income inequality
Autor/es: Brida, Juan Gabriel; Edgar J., Sanchez Carrera ; Segarra, Verónica
Fecha: 03/2020
Publicación: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. Volumen 52 Pages 99-108 ISSN: 0954-349X

URL: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0954349X18303953

Doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2019.09.010

Resumen: This study explores the dynamic relationship between income inequality and economic growth by using a non-parametric approach and numerical taxonomy as a research method based on data symbolization and clustering methods. The study uses annual data of the GINI index (considering two databases, i.e. the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID) and the Estimated Household Income Inequality Data Set (EHII)) and the Per Capita GDP Growth Rates (economic growth variable) for two samples, i.e. 38 countries between 1980 and 2015, and 23 countries during the period 1980–2010. This novel methodology is used to detect the existence of clusters of countries sharing similar economic performance that are characterized by the income inequality variable. Once the homogeneous clusters are fixed, using a dynamic econometric approach, we study the Granger causal relationship between economic growth and income inequality, and the positive or negative long-run effects. Our results show that in advanced economies there is an economic growth policy supporting income distribution, while in poor or developing economies economic growth is enhanced by income concentration.


Using approximate Bayesian inference for a “steps and turns” continuous-time random walk observed at regular time intervals
Autor/es:  Ruiz-Suarez,Sofia; Leos-Barajas, Vianey ;  Alvarez-Castro,Ignacio ; Morales, Juan Manuel
Fecha: 02/2020
Publicación: PeerJ, Volumen 8  ISSN :2167-8359
Resumen: The study of animal movement is challenging because movement is a process modulated by many factors acting at different spatial and temporal scales. In order to describe and analyse animal movement, several models have been proposed which differ primarily in the temporal conceptualization, namely continuous and discrete time formulations. Naturally, animal movement occurs in continuous time but we tend to observe it at fixed time intervals. To account for the temporal mismatch between observations and movement decisions, we used a state-space model where movement decisions (steps and turns) are made in continuous time. That is, at any time there is a non-zero probability of making a change in movement direction. The movement process is then observed at regular time intervals. As the likelihood function of this state-space model turned out to be intractable yet simulating data is straightforward, we conduct inference using different variations of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). We explore the applicability of this approach as a function of the discrepancy between the temporal scale of the observations and that of the movement process in a simulation study. Simulation results suggest that the model parameters can be recovered if the observation time scale is moderately close to the average time between changes in movement direction. Good estimates were obtained when the scale of observation was up to five times that of the scale of changes in direction. We demonstrate the application of this model to a trajectory of a sheep that was reconstructed in high resolution using information from magnetometer and GPS devices. The state-space model used here allowed us to connect the scales of the observations and movement decisions in an intuitive and easy to interpret way. Our findings underscore the idea that the time scale at which animal movement decisions are made needs to be considered when designing data collection protocols. In principle, ABC methods allow to make inferences about movement processes defined in continuous time but in terms of easily interpreted steps and turns.

Sex determination in forensic dentistry using supervised classification techniques
Autor/es: Álvarez-Vaz, Ramón; Sassi, Carlos
Fecha: 01/2020
Publicación: Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Volumen 9 Número 1 ISSN  2357-5549

URL: https://doi.org/10.15446/rev.fac.cienc.v9n1.80641

Doi:

Resumen : Los dientes, componentes esenciales del sistema estomatognático, constituyen un excelente
material para investigaciones paleontológicas, arqueológicas, antropológicas, genéticas y forenses, merced a su fácil accesibilidad, examen, registro y estructura casi indestructible. La información referente a su tamaño y caracterı́sticas ha resultado de suma utilidad en la determinación del sexo y en el propio proceso de identificación humana. Este estudio buscó verificar si el ı́ndice canino maxilar, era un instrumento confiable y válido para la determinación del sexo, en una muestra uruguaya. Se trató de un análisis odontométrico de 481 modelos superiores de yeso (243 de sujetos del sexo masculino y 238 del femenino), de pacientes con edades comprendidas entre 18 y 60 años, asistidos en una clı́nica de ortodoncia de la ciudad de Montevideo, Uruguay, consistente en las mediciones del diámetro mesiodistal de los caninos y la distancia intercanina superiores, y el cálculo del correspondiente ı́ndice canino maxilar. Se compararon tres técnicas de clasificación del sexo, el ı́ndice canino maxilar y dos métodos de clasificación supervisada (árbol de clasificación y árbol particionado recursivo), buscando verificar qué método era el más adecuado para la determinación del sexo,en una muestra uruguaya. Los modelos mostraron una performance de 52 %, 77 % y 69 % respectivamente.
Se concluyó que los modelos estadı́sticos de clasificación supervisada, permitieron realizar una determinación del sexo de manera más fidedigna que el método de discriminación convencional.


Sensitivity indices for output on a Riemannian manifold
Autor/es: Fraiman, R.; Gamboa, F.; Moreno, Leonardo
Fecha: 01/2020
Publicación: International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification.. ISSN 2152-5099

URL: www.dl.begellhouse.com/journals/52034eb04b657aea,148a754a61aebe77,48ef5a0f3b45ff8e.html

Doi:10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2020029614

Resumen: In the context of computer code experiments, sensitivity analysis of a complicated input-output system is often performed by ranking the so-called Sobol' indices. One reason for the popularity of the Sobol' approach relies on the simplicity of the statistical estimation of these indices using the so-called pick and freeze method. In this work we propose and study sensitivity indices for the case where the output lies on a Riemannian manifold. These indices are based on a Cramer-von Mises like criterion that takes into account the geometry of the output support. We propose a pick and freeze like estimator of these indices based on an U−statistic. The asymptotic properties of these estimators are studied. Further, we provide and discuss some interesting numerical examples.



Caracterización de la satisfacción estudiantil en la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración en Uruguay: una aplicación de análisis de clases latentes y de análisis de clusters
Autor/es: Álvarez-Vaz, Ramón; Vernzza-Mañan, Elena
Fecha: 05/2019
Publicación: Cuadernos del CIMBAGE. Volumen 1 Issue 21 Pages 65-85, ISSN 1669-1830

URL:ojs.econ.uba.ar/index.php/CIMBAGE/article/view/1342

Doi:

Resumen: En este trabajo se presentan los principales resultados obtenidos al realizar un estudio de la caracterización de la Satisfacción Estudiantil, en los cursos de grado de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración, Universidad de la República, Uruguay, a través de la utilización y comparación de dos técnicas de análisis de datos multivariantes: Análisis de Clases Latentes y Análisis de Clusters. Los datos utilizados provienen de una encuesta aplicada sobre una muestra de estudiantes de la Facultad. El cuestionario presenta una estructura de 2 bloques. El primero, presenta las variables que permitirán realizar una caracterización sociodemográfica de los estudiantes, y el segundo contiene 63 ítems subdivididos en 8 escalas asociadas al modelo ECSI que serán las utilizadas para la caracterización de la Satisfacción Estudiantil. Las variables manifiestas consideradas para la construcción y caracterización de la Satisfacción Estudiantil son las siguientes: expectativas de los estudiantes al ingresar al centro de estudios, la imagen que tienen de éste, la calidad de la enseñanza recibida y de los servicios brindados, las necesidades y deseos personales con respecto a la Facultad y el valor percibido. Estas variables surgen de agrupar los ítems del ECSI, por escala. Los resultados presentados surgen, de considerar que efectivamente existe una variable que refiere a la Satisfacción Estudiantil y que ésta queda definida, a partir de la interacción de las 6 variables manifiestas, por cuatro clases latentes. Por otra parte, se propone agrupar a los estudiantes en tres clusters (utilizando el algoritmo de Ward).


Estudio del gasto en turistas de cruceros en Uruguay para la temporada 2010-2011 mediante el análisis de redes
Autor/es: Álvarez-Vaz, Ramón; Altmark, Silvia
Fecha: 05/2019
Publicación: Cuadernos del CIMBAGE. Volumen 1 Issue 21 Pages 27-64, ISSN 1669-1830

URL:ojs.econ.uba.ar/index.php/CIMBAGE/article/view/1341

Doi:

Resumen: El turismo de cruceros en Uruguay ha crecido desde la temporada 2004-2005, determinando un importante aporte de divisas cada temporada (abril a octubre de cada año). Por tanto, se estima relevante caracterizar las variables económicas involucradas en esta actividad, en particular, el gasto. A partir de los datos del Ministerio de Turismo de cruceros de la temporada 2010-2011, este trabajo compara la tipología surgida de aplicar métodos de clusters jerárquicos y no jerárquicos, con la que surge al aplicar el análisis de redes (SNA) a los datos del gasto en cruceristas. Previamente los autores habían construido una tipología de cruceristas, resultante de aplicar el algoritmo de Ward sobre distancias para variables binarias (gasta o no gasta) en cinco rubros de gasto.Los datos de cruceros se obtienen de una muestra de pasajeros a través de una encuesta cara a cara con diseño muestral complejo. Se cuenta con información de personas y gasto desde la temporada 2005-2006 y el presente trabajo se focaliza en la temporada 2010-2011.Para evaluar la performance del análisis de redes se trabaja con cuatro cruceros, (seleccionados al azar por probabilidad proporcional al aforo de cada uno) sobre los que, a partir de los gastos binarios, se construyen grafos, a los cuales se les aplican las diferentes métricas para su descripción. Usando la tipología previa de gastos, se estudia la asociación de las características socio-demográficas de los cruceristas con los grupos creados y con las comunidades identificadas con el SNA, para determinar eventuales patrones de comportamiento al cambiar de tipo de crucero.


Importance of modelling decisions on estimating trajectories of depressive symptoms and co-morbid conditions in older adults: Longitudinal studies from ten European countries
Autor/es: Marroig, Alejandra; Čukić, Iva; Robitaille, Annie; Piccinin, Andrea; Terrera, Graciela Muniz
Fecha: 04/2019
Publicación: PLoS ONE. Volumen 14 Pages e0214438, ISSN 1932-6203

URL:journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0214438

Doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0214438

Resumen: Background International comparisons of trajectories of depressive symptoms in older adults are scarce and longitudinal associations with co-morbid conditions not fully understood. Objective To compare trajectories of depressive symptoms from participants living in 10 European Countries and identify ages at which the associations of co-morbid conditions with these trajectories become more relevant. Methods Latent growth curve models were fitted to depressive symptoms scores from participants of the Survey of Health and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) initiative (combined n = 21,253) and co-morbid conditions modelled as time varying covariates. To identify the ages at which the association between co-morbid conditions and depressive symptoms was significant the Johnson-Neyman (JN) technique was used. Results The shape of depressive symptoms trajectories varied between countries, and was highly dependent on modelling decisions. The association between the average number of co-morbidities reported over time and depressive symptoms was consistent and positive across countries and ages. Conclusion International differences in ageing-related trajectories of depressive symptoms emerged. The longitudinal association of co-morbid conditions with trajectories of depressive symptoms was found, but the results overall suggest that modelling decisions could greatly influence the outcomes, and should thus be interpreted with caution.


Spatial Poisson processes for fatigue crack initiation
Autor/es: Babuška, Iva; Sawlan, Zaid; Scavio, Marco; Szabó, Barna; Tempone, Raúl
Fecha: 03/2019
Publicación: Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering. Volumen 345 Pages 454-475, ISSN 0045-7825

URL:www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0045782518305620

Doi:10.1016/j.cma.2018.11.007

Resumen: In this work we propose a stochastic model for estimating the occurrence of crack initiations on the surface of metallic specimens in fatigue problems that can be applied to a general class of geometries. The stochastic model is based on spatial Poisson processes with intensity function that combines stress-life (S–N) curves with averaged effective stress, σeffΔ(x), which is computed after solving numerically the linear elasticity equations on the specimen domains using finite element methods. Here, Δ is a parameter that characterizes the size of the neighbors covering the domain boundary. The averaged effective stress, parameterized by Δ, maps the stress tensor to a scalar field upon the specimen domain. Data from fatigue experiments on notched and unnotched sheet specimens of 75S-T6 aluminum alloys are used to calibrate the model parameters for the individual data sets and their combination. Bayesian and classical approaches are applied to estimate the survival-probability function for any specimen tested under a prescribed fatigue experimental setup. Our proposed model can predict the initiation of cracks in specimens made from the same material with new geometries.


Twinning Rates in Uruguay Between 1999 and 2015: Association with Socioeconomic and Demographic Factors
Autor/es: Gómez, Noelia; Sosa, Andrés; Corte, Sylvia; Otta, Emma
Fecha: 02/2019
Publicación: Twin Research and Human Genetics. Volumen 22 Issue 1 Pages 56-61, ISSN 1832-4274

URL:www.cambridge.org/core/journals/twin-research-and-human-genetics/article/twinning-rates-in-uruguay-between-1999-and-2015-association-with-socioeconomic-and-demographic-factors/90723B852E38AF104819A34A52D5698E

Doi:10.1017/thg.2018.70

Resumen: Twinning is rare among humans, but there is much variability among populations. Several studies show that certain demographic and socioeconomic factors, such as maternal age, mother's educational level and income, influence twinning rate. There is no background of analytical studies of twins in Uruguay. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that has focused on describing and analyzing Uruguayan twinning rates over a period of 17 years (1999-2015). The birth data were collected from the website of Uruguay's Ministry of Public Health. Economic data were obtained from Uruguay's Instituto Nacional de Estadísti's website for the period 2001-2013, since these variables are defined specifically for that period of time. The statistical software R (The R Project for Statistical Computing) was used. The twinning rate varied from 8.51 to 13 in the studied period. Montevideo has the highest median and the smallest variability in comparison with the other departments. In Uruguay (1999-2015), the highest twinning rate (28.94%) was observed in women aged 45 and older. The analysis also showed a relationship between twin birth rates and the mother's educational level. In three regions of the country (West, Center and East), twin births show a random pattern but in the other two (North and Metropolitan), there is an increasing trend in the number of twins over time. In conclusion, this study recognizes social, economic and demographic factors that influence in the rate of twin births in Uruguay.


Ensemble-marginalized Kalman filter for linear time-dependent PDEs with noisy boundary conditions: application to heat transfer in building walls
Autor/es: Iglesias, M. and Sawlan, Z. and Scavino, M. and Tempone, R. and Wood, C.
Fecha: 05/2018
Publicación: Inverse Problems, Volumen 34 N°7, ISSN 0266-5611

URL:iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1361-6420/aac224/meta

Doi:10.1088/1361-6420/aac224

Resumen: In this work, we present the ensemble-marginalized Kalman filter (EnMKF), a sequential algorithm analogous to our previously proposed approach (Ruggeri et al 2017 Bayesian Anal. 12 407–33, Iglesias et al 2018 Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 116 417–31), for estimating the state and parameters of linear parabolic partial differential equations in initial-boundary value problems when the boundary data are noisy. We apply EnMKF to infer the thermal properties of building walls and to estimate the corresponding heat flux from real and synthetic data. Compared with a modified ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that is not marginalized, EnMKF reduces the bias error, avoids the collapse of the ensemble without needing to add inflation, and converges to the mean field posterior using or less of the ensemble size required by EnKF. According to our results, the marginalization technique in EnMKF is key to performance improvement with smaller ensembles at any fixed time.


Modelación del Mercado de Bonos Soberanos en Moneda Nacional en Uruguay
Autor/es: Sosa, Andrés
Fecha: 2018
Publicación: Perspectivas, revista de análisis de economía, comercio y negocios internacionales, v.: 12 1 , p.:31 – 46, 2018 ISSN: 20072104

URL:publicaciones.eco.uaslp.mx/Pagina1.htm

Doi:

Resumen: The aim of this paper is to estimate the yields on sovereign debt in Uruguay in local currency. The estimates were made in the nominal market (Uruguayan pesos) and in the real market (indexed units) in order to obtain predictions on the future inflation rate. The model used is Vasicek in one and two factors and the parameter estimation include the Kalman Filter methodology. The data used are the daily prices of tickets issued in Uruguay for the period from January 2014 to August 2016.


Blood Pressure in relation to 24-Hour Urinary Sodium and Potassium Excretion in a Uruguayan Population Sample
Autor/es: Moliterno,Paula; Álvarez-Vaz,Ramón; Pécora,Matias; Luzardo,Leonella ; Borgarello,Luciana; Olascoaga,Alicia; Marino,Carmen; Noboa,Oscar; Staessen, Jan A.; Boggia,José
Fecha: 2018
Publicación: International Journal of Hypertension Volume 2018, Article ID 6956078, 10 pages

URL:pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30631591/

Doi: 10.1155/2018/6956078

Resumen: Many public health policies in Latin America target an optimized sodium and potassium intake. The aims of this study were to assess the sodium and potassium intake using 24-hour urinary analysis and to study their association with blood pressure in a Uruguayan population cohort using cluster analysis. A total of 149 participants (aged 20-85 years) were included in the study, and office blood pressure, anthropometric measurements, biochemical parameters in the blood, and 24-hour urine samples were obtained. The overall mean sodium and potassium excretion was 152.9 ± 57.3 mmol/day (8.9 ± 3.4 g/day of salt) and 55.4 ± 19.6 mmol/day, respectively. The average office systolic/diastolic blood pressure was 124.6 ± 16.7/79.3 ± 9.9 mmHg. Three compact spherical clusters were defined in untreated participants based on predetermined attributes, including blood pressure, age, and sodium and potassium excretion. The major characteristics of the three clusters were (1) high systolic blood pressure and moderate sodium excretion, (2) moderate systolic blood pressure and very high sodium excretion, and (3) low systolic blood pressure and low sodium excretion. Participants in cluster three had systolic blood pressure values that were 23.9 mmHg (95% confidence interval: -29.5 to -1.84) lower than those in cluster one. Participants in cluster two had blood pressure levels similar to those in cluster one (P = 0.32) and worse metabolic profiles than those in cluster one and three (P < 0.05). None of the clusters showed high blood pressure levels and high sodium excretion. No linear association was found between blood pressure and urinary sodium excretion (r 0.47). An effect of sodium and potassium intake on blood pressure levels was not found at the population level using regression or cluster analysis.


Pricing Bond Options in Emerging Markets: a case study
Autor/es: Sosa, Andrés; Magnou, Guillermo; Mordecki, Ernesto
Fecha: 01/2018
Publicación: Journal of Dynamics and Games, v.: 5 1 , p.:21 – 30, ISSN: 21646066

URL:aimsciences.org/article/doi/10.3934/jdg.2018003

Doi:10.3934/jdg.2018003

Resumen: We propose two methodologies to price sovereign bond options in emerging markets. The motivation is to provide hedging protection against price fluctuations, departing from the not liquid data provided by the stock exchange. Taking this into account, we first compute prices provided by the Jamshidian formula, when modeling the interest rate through Vasicek model, with parameters estimated with the help of the Kalman filter. The second methodology is the pricing strategy provided by the Black-Derman-Toy tree model. A numerical comparison is carried out. The first equilibrium approach provides parsimonious modeling, is less sensitive to daily changes and more robust, while the second non-arbitrage approach provides more uctuating but also what can be considered more accurate option prices.


Sobrepeso, obesidad e hipertensión arterial en niños, una aproximación al problema
Autor/es: Virginia Estragó , Alina Tabárez , Matías Muñoz , Gabriela González ,Daniel Bulla , Jorge Díaz , Mario Zelarayan , Ramón Álvarez -Vaz
Fecha: 2018
Publicación: Archivos de Pediatría del Uruguay, v.: 89 5 , p.:301-310, ISSN: 1688-1249

URL:scielo.edu.uy/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&pid=S1688-12492018000600301&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=es

Doi:10.31134/ap.89.5.2

Resumen: Los factores de riesgo como la hipertensión arterial (HTA) y la obesidad están presentes desde edades tempranas y tienden a persistir hasta la edad adulta. La detección precoz de estos factores de riesgo es clave para establecer estrategias preventivas eficaces.


Early-life socioeconomic status and malocclusion in adolescents and young adults in Uruguay
Autor/es: Marília Leão Goettems; Mariana Ourens; Laura Cosetti; Susana Lorenzo; Ramon Álvarez-Vaz; Roger Keller Celeste
Fecha: 2018
Publicación: Cadernos de Saúde Pública, v.: 34 1 , p.:e00051017, ISSN: 21646066

URL:scielosp.org/article/csp/2018.v34n3/e00051017/

Doi:10.1590/0102-311X00051017

Resumen: This study aims to estimate orthodontic treatment need among 15-24 year-old individuals in Montevideo, Uruguay, and the association of occlusal traits with demographic, clinical and socioeconomic factors, considering a life course approach. A cross-sectional study using data from the First National Oral Health Survey in Uruguay was conducted. A two-stage cluster procedure was used to select a sample of 278 individuals in Montevideo. Household interviews and oral examinations were performed by six dentists. Dental Aesthetic (DAI) and Decayed Missing and Filled Teeth Indices (DMFT) were used to assess orthodontic treatment need and dental caries, respectively. Early life and current socioeconomic factors were obtained from the interview. Ordinal logistic regression was used to model the DAI index. Prevalence of definite malocclusion was 20.6%, followed by severe (8.2%) and very severe (7.6%). In the adjusted analysis, individuals with untreated dental caries (OR = 1.11; 95%CI: 1.03-1.20) and those who reported a lower socioeconomic level at 6 years of age (OR = 5.52; 95%CI: 1.06-28.62) had a higher chance of being a worse case of malocclusion. Current socioeconomic position was not associated with orthodontic treatment need. Individuals aged 22-24 years (OR = 1.59; 95%CI: 1.05-2.41) had a lower chance than those aged 14-17. This study shows that orthodontic treatment need is relatively high in Uruguayan adolescents and young adults. There is a potential relationship between early life socioeconomic status and the occurrence of malocclusion in adolescents and young adults under a life course approach.


The role of contextual and individual factors on periodontal disease in Uruguayan adults
Autor/es: Susana Margarita LORENZO-ERRO,Fernando MASSA ,Ramón Álvarez-Vaz ,Helena Silveira CHUCH, Marcos Britto CORREA ,Marco Aurélio PERES
Fecha: 2018
Publicación: Brazilian Oral Research, v.: 32 e62, ISSN: 1806-8324, 1807-3107

URL:scielo.br/j/bor/a/NdKrhFwYqHkcWjyShn8vBqw/?lang=en

Doi:10.1590/1807-3107bor-2018.vol32.0062

Resumen: The present study aimed at understanding the relationship between periodontitis and socio-contextual and individual determinants of health. Data from “The First Uruguayan Oral Health Survey, 2011”, which included 223 and 455 individuals with 35–44 and 65–74 years old respectively, were used. A stratified, multistage cluster sampling design was adopted (cities with ≥ 20.000 residents). Periodontitis was assessed using the modified Community Periodontal Index (CPI) and clinical attachment loss (CAL) (periodontal pocket and CAL ≥ 4 mm). Independent variables included contextual socioeconomic status (SES) measured by proportion of houses with Unsatisfied Basic Needs (UBN) and individual demographic and behavioral factors. Logistic regression multilevel models were generated. Living in contexts with a higher UBN was associated with higher odds for periodontitis in both age groups, even when adjusting for individual level variables (odds ratio [OR] = 1.51, 95%CI = 1.42–1.60 and 1.31, 95%CI = 1.21–1.42, respectively). Being male or heavy smoker increased the odds of periodontitis in this population for both age groups. Social structure impacts periodontal disease by modifying individual socioeconomic situations: in better socioeconomic context, UBN acts increasing the protector role of socioeconomic situation but in a poverty context the role is attenuated. Conclusions for this study are that periodontitis varies across contextual socio-demographic groups being higher in the population with a lower SES, challenging health authorities to integrate oral health into national non-communicable diseases programs.


Visiting friends and relatives’ tourism: the case of Uruguay
Autor/es: Silvia Altmark, Karina Larruina, Gabriela Mordecki
Fecha: 2018
Publicación: TRANSITARE, v.: 4 N°2, ISSN: 2395-9835

URL:transitare.anahuacoaxaca.edu.mx/index.php/Transitare/article/view/89

Doi:

Resumen: In this paper, we analyze Uruguayans living abroad that visit Uruguay for their holidays,what in the literature is called Nostalgic tourism or Visiting friends and relatives (VFR) tourism.Several studies point Uruguay as one of the South American countries with the largestproportion of its population living abroad. In addition, tourism is a very important economicactivity in Uruguay. Visitors from Argentina have been always the majority in the Uruguayaninbound tourism. During 2017 in Uruguay 68% of total tourists were Argentinians, 12,5%Brazilians, and 8% VFR tourists. This last share was near 16% during the first decade of thiscentury and even higher in the XXth. century.We analyze and estimate the VFR tourism demand in Uruguay, and compare it withArgentinian tourist demand, since the majority of VFR tourists live in Argentina (64%). Aftercharacterizing VFR tourists, we apply Johansen methodology and built four models: two forVFR tourism and two for Argentinian tourism, considering monthly data for the number oftourists and quarterly data for tourists’ expenditure.Applying Johansen methodology, we found at least one Vector error-correction model(VEC) equation for each model considered. In the first two models (taking into accountthe number of tourists), the elasticities (income and prices) were smaller for VFR touristscompared with Argentinian tourists, meaning that the number of VFR tourists react less tochanges in income or relative prices than Argentinians. But in the case of tourists’ expenditure,the result was the opposite, with VFR tourists responding more to changes in prices orincome than Argentinians. Impulse response functions show a greater reaction of Argentiniantourists to changes in relative prices, but similar in the case of an income shock. Finally,forecasts show a good adjust of the forecast to actual data.


Bayesian inferences of the thermal properties of a wall using temperature and heat flux measurements
Autor/es: Marco Iglesias, Zaid Sawlan, Marco Scavino, Raúl Tempone, Christopher Wood
Fecha: 2018
Publicación: International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, v.: 116 Pages 417-431, ISSN: 0017-9310

URL:sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0017931017308396?via%3Dihub

Doi:10.1016/j.ijheatmasstransfer.2017.09.022

Resumen: The assessment of the thermal properties of walls is essential for accurate building energy simulations that are needed to make effective energy-saving policies. These properties are usually investigated through in situ measurements of temperature and heat flux over extended time periods. The one-dimensional heat equation with unknown Dirichlet boundary conditions is used to model the heat transfer process through the wall. In Ruggeri et al. (2017), it was assessed the uncertainty about the thermal diffusivity parameter using different synthetic data sets. In this work, we adapt this methodology to an experimental study conducted in an environmental chamber, with measurements recorded every minute from temperature probes and heat flux sensors placed on both sides of a solid brick wall over a five-day period. The observed time series are locally averaged, according to a smoothing procedure determined by the solution of a criterion function optimization problem, to fit the required set of noise model assumptions. Therefore, after preprocessing, we can reasonably assume that the temperature and the heat flux measurements have stationary Gaussian noise and we can avoid working with full covariance matrices. The results show that our technique reduces the bias error of the estimated parameters when compared to other approaches. Finally, we compute the information gain under two experimental setups to recommend how the user can efficiently determine the duration of the measurement campaign and the range of the external temperature oscillation.


Evaluación de un instrumento de medición del nivel de satisfacción estudiantil a través de la aplicación de modelos de ecuaciones estructurales
Autor/es: Ramón Álvarez, Elena Vernazza
Fecha: 2017
Publicación: Cuadernos del CIMBAGE. Volumen 19 Pages 1-25

URL:https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=6081285

Doi:

Resumen: En este trabajo se estudian las propiedades psicométricas de un instrumento propuesto para medir la satisfacción estudiantil para cursos superiores de la Universidad de Beira Interior (Portugal), para luego ver los resultados que surgen de aplicarlo en la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración, Universidad de la República, Uruguay.

El indicador propuesto para medir el nivel de satisfacción estudiantil considera relaciones de causa-efecto entre algunas variables que son consideradas como ''antecedentes'' y otras ''consecuencia" de la satisfacción. En el primer conjunto de variables se encuentran las expectativas de los alumnos, la imagen que tiene de la facultad, la calidad de la enseñanza y servicios, y el valor percibido, mientras que como ''consecuencias" de la satisfacción se encuentran la lealtad hacia la institución y el impacto en el boca a boca. Los datos utilizados para la aplicación presentada provienen de una encuesta aplicada sobre una muestra probabilística de estudiantes de la facultad, en 2009. El cuestionario aplicado, presenta 9 bloques de preguntas; el primero contiene las variables que permitirán realizar una caracterización de los estudiantes en función de características sociodemográficas. Por otra parte, las variables pertenecientes a los bloques A - H presentan las variables del modelo EC SI (European Customer Satisfaction Index), insumos para el cálculo del índice de satis facción estudiantil. Los resultados, presentados para un modelo con 22 variables observables y 7 constructos no observables, se comparan para dos métodos de estimación: máxima verosimilitud y mínimos cuadrados parciales.


Proyección del número de turistas mediante un modelo SARIMA
Autor/es: Silvia Altmark, Gabriela Mordecki, Adrián Risso, Florencia Santiñaque
Fecha: 2017
Publicación: TRANSITARE. Volumen 3 N° 1 Pages 139-162 ISSN 2395-9835

URL:transitare.anahuacoaxaca.edu.mx/index.php/Transitare/article/view/40

Doi:

Resumen: La actividad turística se considera un sector clave en Uruguay, al igual que en el ámbito internacional, por su importancia en la generación de divisas, empleo y aporte al desarrollo local. Actores públicos y privados necesitan proyectar el número de turistas para poder realizar una planificación eficiente. A su vez, la rentabilidad de posibles oportunidades de inversión podría evaluarse mejor en base a proyecciones más precisas. Estas proyecciones también son necesarias a los efectos de posicionar un destino en relación a su competencia. Es por ello que el objetivo del presente trabajo es obtener un modelo que permita realizar proyecciones de corto plazo del número de turistas que ingresan al país. En particular, los argentinos y brasileños representan el 80% del total de turistas que ingresan a Uruguay, por ello se modela y proyecta su comportamiento para el año 2015 y 2016. Debido al comportamiento estacional de las series, se procede a realizar un análisis de series de tiempo mediante modelos SARIMA. Dicha metodología surge de la necesidad de elaborar modelos rigurosos pero parsimoniosos, que puedan ser fácilmente transmitidos y asimilados por las instituciones públicas y privadas, de modo que estos instrumentos sean de utilidad y se les pueda dar continuidad. Según los modelos ajustados a este caso, se prevé para el 2015 un aumento de la cantidad de turistas argentinos del 5,6% respecto al año 2014, mientras que para los brasileños se espera que crezcan un 5,1% en el mismo periodo.


En EDICIÓN


Craniofacial pain can be the sole prodromal symptom of an acute myocardial infarction: an interdisciplinary study
Autor/es: Marcelo Kreiner, Ramón Álvarez -Vaz, Virginia Michelis, Anders Waldenström, Annika Isberg
Fecha: 04/2016
Publicación: RActa odontologica latinoamericana: AOL. Volumen 29 N°1 Pages 23-28 ISSN 1852-4834

URL:pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27701494/

Doi:

Resumen: We recently found craniofacial pain to be the sole symptom of an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in 4% of patients. We hypothesized that this scenario is also true for symptoms of prodromal (pre-infarction) angina. We studied 326 consecutive patients who experienced myocardial ischemia. Intra-individual variability analyses with respect to ECG findings and pain characteristics were performed for those 150 patients who experienced at least one recurrent ischemic episode. AMI patients (n=113) were categorized into two subgroups: "abrupt onset" (n=81) and "prodromal angina" (n=32). Age, gender and risk factor comparisons were performed between groups. Craniofacial pain constituted the sole prodromal symptom of an AMI in 5% of patients. In those who experienced two ischemic episodes, women were more likely than men to experience craniofacial pain in both episodes (p<0.01). There was no statistically significant difference between episodes regarding either ECG findings or the use of the two typical pain quality descriptors "pressure" and "burning". This study is to our knowledge the first to report that craniofacial pain can be the only symptom of a pre-infarction angina. Craniofacial pain constitutes the sole prodromal AMI symptom in one out of 20 AMI patients. Recognition of this atypical symptom presentation is low because research on prodromal AMI symptoms has to date studied only patients with chest pain. To avoid a potentially fatal misdiagnosis, awareness of this clinical presentation needs to be brought to the attention of clinicians, researchers and the general public.


Bayesian inference and model comparison for metallic fatigue data
Autor/es: Babuška, Ivo; Sawlan, Zaid; Szabó, Barna; Tempone, Raúl; Scavino, Marco
Fecha: 2016
Publicación: Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering. Volumen 304 Issue 1 Pages 171-196 ISSN 0045-7825

URL:sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0045782516300354

Doi:10.1016/j.cma.2016.02.013

Resumen: In this work, we present a statistical treatment of stress-life (S-N) data drawn from a collection of records of fatigue experiments that were performed on 75S-T6 aluminum alloys. Our main objective is to predict the fatigue life of materials by providing a systematic approach to model calibration, model selection and model ranking with reference to S-N data. To this purpose, we consider fatigue-limit models and random fatigue-limit models that are specially designed to allow the treatment of the run-outs (right-censored data). We first fit the models to the data by maximum likelihood methods and estimate the quantiles of the life distribution of the alloy specimen. To assess the robustness of the estimation of the quantile functions, we obtain bootstrap confidence bands by stratified resampling with respect to the cycle ratio. We then compare and rank the models by classical measures of fit based on information criteria. We also consider a Bayesian approach that provides, under the prior distribution of the model parameters selected by the user, their simulation-based posterior distributions. We implement and apply Bayesian model comparison methods, such as Bayes factor ranking and predictive information criteria based on cross-validation techniques under various a priori scenarios.


Some probabilistic properties of fractional point processes.
Autor/es: Orsingher, Enzo; Garra, Roberto; Scavino, Marco
Fecha: 2016
Publicación: Stochastic Analysis and Applications. Volumen 35 N° 4 Pages 701-718 ISSN 0736-2994

URL:arxiv.org/abs/1604.05235

Doi:10.1080/07362994.2017.1308831

Resumen: In this article, the first hitting times of generalized Poisson processes Nf(t), related to Bernštein functions f are studied. For the space-fractional Poisson processes, Nα(t), t > 0 (corresponding to f = xα), the hitting probabilities PTαk < ∞ are explicitly obtained and analyzed. The processes Nf(t) are time-changed Poisson processes N(Hf(t)) with subordinators Hf(t) and here we study and obtain probabilistic features of these extended counting processes. A section of the paper is devoted to processes of the form where are generalized grey Brownian motions. This involves the theory of time-dependent fractional operators of the McBride form. While the time-fractional Poisson process is a renewal process, we prove that the space–time Poisson process is no longer a renewal process.


A systematic review and meta-analysis of the antibiotic treatment for infectious bovine keratoconjunctivitis: an update

(Cullen,J Yuan,C., Totton, S.  Dzikamunhenga,R. , Coetzee, J. da Silva,N.  Wang, N. O’ Connor, M.  Animal Health Research Reviews 17(1):60-75) (2016)


A mixed treatment meta-analysis of antibiotic treatment options for bovine respiratory disease

An update. ( O’Connor, A. Yuanb, C.  Cullen, Coetzee, J, da Silva, Wang, N.  Veterinary Medicine Volume 132,  130–139) (2016)


Prevalencia de factores de riesgo de enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles en funcionarios de una institución bancaria del Uruguay

(Estela Skapino, Ramón Álvarez Vaz, Rev Urug Cardiol , 31:246-255), (2016)


Comparative effectiveness of water and salt community-based fluoridation methods in preventing dental caries among schoolchildren

(Fabruccini, A. Alves,L.F Alvarez,L.  Alvarez Vaz, Ramón. Susin,Cristiano Maltz,M, Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology,  44(6),1-9 ) ,(2016)


Can students’ satisfaction indexes be applied the same way in different countries?

(Ramón Álvarez Vaz, Danny Freira, Elena Vernazza,Helena Alves,International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing,13:101-118), (2016)


A Hierarchical Bayesian Setting for an Inverse Problem in Linear Parabolic PDEs with Noisy Boundary Conditions.

(RUGGERI, F.; SCAVINO, M.; SAWLAN, Z.; TEMPONE, R.) Bayesian Analysis, (2016)


Periodontal conditions and associated factors among adults and the elderly: findings from the first National Oral Health Survey in Uruguay

(Susana M. Lorenzo, Ramón Álvarez Vaz, Ernesto Andrade,Virginia Piccardo, Alejandro Francia, Fernando Massa,Marcos Britto Correa, Marco Aurélio Peres, Cad. Saúde Pública, Rio de Janeiro, 31(11):2425-2436), (2015)


Erosive Tooth Wear among 12-Year-Old Schoolchildren: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study in Montevideo, Uruguay

(ALVAREZ LOUREIRO LICET, FABRUCCINI ANUNZZIATTA, SEVERO ALVES LUANA ,ALVAREZ RAMON, MALTZ MARISA), Caries Research ;49:216-225, (2015)


Pain and sickness behavior associated with corneal lesions in dairy calves

( Woods, B. Millman, S. da Silva, N., Dewell, R. Parsons, R., Wang, C. F1000 Research, http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.6649.1), (2015)


A Laplace method for under-determined Bayesian optimal experimental designs.

(LONG, Q.; SCAVINO, M.; TEMPONE, R.; WANG, S.) Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, v.: 285, p.: 849 – 876, (2015)


A projection method for under determined optimal experimental designs

(LONG, Q.; SCAVINO, M.; TEMPONE, R.; WANG, S. In: Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures, 2203-2207. George Deodatis , Bruce R . Ellingwood & Dan M . Frangopol (Eds.) Taylor & Francis Group – CRC Press, London) (2014)


Craniofacial Pain of Cardiac Origin Is Associated withInferior Wall Ischemia

(Ramón Álvarez Vaz ,Marcelo Kreiner ) Journal of Oral & Facial Pain and Headache ,28(4), (2014)


Bayesian inference for a covariance matrix

(Alvarez, I. Niemi, J.   Simpson, M. arXiv.org > stat >) (2014)


Mixed treatment comparison meta-analysis of porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) vaccines used in piglets

(da Silva, N.  Carriquiry, A. O’Neill, K. Opriessnig, T.  O’Connor, A. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 117, (3–4), 413–424) (2014)


Cruise Passengers in a Homeport: A Market Analysis

(Juan Gabriel Brida, Manuela Pulina, Eugenia Riaño ,Sandra Zapata Aguirre) Tourism Geographies: An International Journal of Tourism Space, Place and Environment Volume 15, Issue 1, (2013)


Fast Estimation of Expected Information Gains for Bayesian Experimental Designs based on Laplace Approximations

(LONG, Q.; SCAVINO, M.; TEMPONE, R.; WANG, S. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, v.: 259 (1), p.: 24 – 39) (2013)


Evaluación de la Pescadilla (Cynoscion guatucupa) en la Zona Común de Pesca Argentino-Uruguaya mediante Modelos Dinámicos de Producción,

(LORENZO, M.I.; SCAVINO, M.)In: Evaluación de recursos pesqueros de Uruguay mediante modelos dinámicos. p.: 9 – 29, (2013)


A mixed treatment comparison meta-analysis of antibiotic treatments for bovine respiratory disease

( O’Connora, A.  Coetzeea, F  da Silva, N., Wang, C. Preventive Veterinary Medicine Volume 110, Issue 2, 1 June 2013, Pages 77–87 ) (2013)


Prevalencia y factores de riesgo de las lesiones de la mucosa oral en la población urbana del Uruguay

(Casnati Beatriz,Ramón Álvarez Vaz , Massa Fernando, Lorenzo Susana, Angulo Marina,Carzoglio Julio, ODONTOESTOMATOLOGIA), (2013)


Prevalencia de maloclusiones en adolescentes y adultos jóvenes del interior del Uruguay. Relevamiento nacional de salud bucal 2010-2011

(Ourens Mariana, Celeste Roger, Juliana Balbinot, Lorenzo Susana, Hugo Neves Fernando,Ramón Álvarez Vaz , Abegg Claides, ODONTOESTOMATOLOGIA), (2013)


Enfermedad Periodontal en la población joven y adulta uruguaya del Interior del país. Relevamiento Nacional 2010-2011

(Lorenzo Susana, Piccardo Virginia, Alvarez Fernanda, Massa Fernando,Ramón Álvarez Vaz, ODONTOESTOMATOLOGIA ), (2013)


Caries dental. La enfermedad oral más prevalente Primer Estudio poblacional en jóvenes y adultos uruguayos del interior del país

(Olmos Patricia; Piovesan Sylvia; Musto Mariana; Lorenzo Susana;Ramón Álvarez Vaz ,Massa Fernando, ODONTOESTOMATOLOGIA), (2013)


Primer Relevamiento Nacional de Salud Bucal en población joven y adulta uruguaya: Aspectos metodológicos

(Lorenzo Susana,Ramón Álvarez Vaz , Blanco Silvana, Peres Marco, ODONTOESTOMATOLOGIA), (2013)

Cruise visitors’ intention to return as land tourists and to recommend a visited destination (Juan Gabriel Brida, Manuela Pulina, Eugenia Riaño , Sandra Zapata),Anatolia: an International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Research  DOI:10.1080/13032917.2012.712873,Volume 23, Issue 3, (2012)


Measuring visitor experiences at a modern art museum and linkages to the destination community

(Juan Gabriel Brida,Manuela Pulina & Eugenia Maria Miranda Riaño),Journal of Heritage Tourism DOI:10.1080/1743873X.2012.709858,Volume 7, Issue 4, pages 285-299, (2012)


Cruise passengers’ experience embarking in a Caribbean home port. The case study of Cartagena de Indias

(BRIDA, J.G.; PULINA, M.; RIAÑO, E; ZAPATA AGUIRRE, S.) Ocean & Coastal Management ISSN: 0964-5691 ,v.: 55 1, p.: 135 – 145, (2012).


Percepciones de los residentes acerca de los impactos del turismo de cruceros en la comunidad: un análisis factorial y de clústeres

BRIDA, J.G.; ZAPATA AGUIRRE, S. ; RIAÑO, E. Cuadernos de Turismo, v.: 29, p.: 79- – 107, (2012)


Weak Convergence of Marked Empirical Processes for Focused Inference on AR(p) vs AR(p + 1) Stationary Time Series

(Enrique Cabaña, Alejandra Cabaña, Marco Scavino) Methodology And Computing In Applied Probability, v.: 14 (3), p.:793 – 810, 2012  (2012)


Valoración del turismo de cruceros por parte de la comunidad local:Cartagena de Indias

(Juan Gabriel Brida, Eugenia Riaño,María Jesús Such Devesa,Sandra Zapata Aguirre Revista electrónica de geografía y ciencias sociales Número 16, Fascículo: 387-424, (2012)

Valoración del tratamiento local de la candidosis oral. Correlación etiológica

(Casnati Beatriz E., Papone Virginia, Cuestas Mariela,Lorenzo Susana,Ramón Álvarez Vaz , Massa Fernando, ODONTOESTOMATOLOGIA), (2011)


Residents’ attitudes and perceptions towards cruise tourism development: A case study of Cartagena de Indias, Colombia

(Juan Gabriel Brida,Eugenia Riaño, Sandra Zapata Aguirre), Tourism and Hospitality Research doi:10.1177/1467358411415153, 11:181-196, (2011)


Mobilization of hematopoietic progenitor cells with granulocyte colony stimulating factors for autologous transplant in hematologic malignancies:a single center experience

(Ramón Álvarez Vaz , Raul Gabús, Gabriel Borelli, Enrique Bódega, Estela Citrin) Rev Bras Hematol Hemoter. ;33(6):410-6, (2011)


Análisis de demanda de turismo rural en los pueblos de la arquitectura negra de Guadalajára

(Elima Benito Romera,Juan Gabriel Brida,Ana Camino Martínez,Eugenia Riaño,María Jesús Such Devesa),Cuadernos de Turismo, no 27,  pp. 57-75 ISSN: 1139-7861, (2011)

Validation of a simplified sham acupuncture technique for its use in clinical research:a randomised, single blind, crossover study-

Marcelo Kreiner , Ana Zaffaroni ,Ramón Álvarez Vaz , Glenn Clark, Acupuncture in Medicine;28:33­36, (2010)


¿Son las maloclusiones un problema de salud pública en el Uruguay?

(Ramón Álvarez Vaz ,  Ana Buño,  Luis Pascuali,  Ana Bolasco,  Alicia Lugaro, Marta Santos ,Actas_Odontologicas,Vol VII(1) ,(2010)


Producto Potencial y Brecha de Producto en Uruguay

(SILVIA RODRÍGUEZ COLLAZO, IGNACIO ÁLVAREZ, NATALIA DA SILVA)-QUANTUM ,  Vol. IV , No 1, (2009)


Caracterización de la evolución del número de personas privadas de libertad 

(Silvia Rodriguez, Laura Nalbarte), QUANTUM , Volumen II No 1 / Octubre , (2007)